Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
